2024 Super Bowl Pick: Chiefs Defense Rules The Day Vs. Brock Purdy and the 49ers in a rematch

The final game of the 2023 NFL regular season is here, as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs face off in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday. The 49ers opened as the favorite, yet they have yet to cover the spread in the playoffs. As for the Chiefs, they have been impressive, going 3-0 ATS and SU in the Divisional Round and AFC Championship Game despite being road underdogs.

It’s Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock is Purdy. One is on track to rival Tom Brady as the greatest of all time, while we’re still looking for another. Is Purdy a “game manager?” I don’t think that word is a negative descriptor. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league when it comes to throwing with anticipation, and he has a chance to change the narrative around him forever on Sunday.

Before we choose, here’s how to look.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 6:30 pm ET (CBS, Nickelodeon; stream continues Paramount+)
49ers (-2), O/U 47.5 (via SportsLine Consensus)

Is Mahomes an auto bet as an underdog? As a dog, he is 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS. That mark ranks first among the 320 quarterbacks who have had 10 starts as an underdog since 1970. Vegas gave us the Chiefs at plus money against the Philadelphia Eagles last year, and those who didn’t take it looked foolish. I already bet on the Chiefs, but am I 100% sold?

Mahomes is playing great football, but the Chiefs defense has gotten this team to this point. Now, they face one of the most unique offenses in the NFL. On Super Bowl opening night, I wanted to know how Kansas City’s defense started Planned to stop time passages and that particular rhythm The 49ers’ offense may be in gear. I talked to Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton and Justin Reid, who all said he’s physical in coverage and tackling, and that he’ll give a collective effort.

I think San Francisco is one of the best teams in the league, but the 49ers don’t look like a juggernaut in the playoffs. There’s a reason many people are surprised they’re favored over the Chiefs — who have dominated the postseason. In the Super Wild Card weekend, the Chiefs defense held the Miami Dolphins to season-worsts in points (7), yards per play (4.5) and third downs (1 of 12). Against the Buffalo Bills in the next round, Kansas City held Buffalo to its lowest yards per attempt (4.8) since 2021. In the AFC Championship win over the Baltimore Ravens, the Chiefs held Baltimore to a season-low 81 rushing yards and fewest yards. In possession time (22:30). Lamar Jackson’s Career it’s crazy!

I’m interested in how Steve Spagnuolo will call the shots on Sunday. Purdy has 13 touchdowns and one interception this season vs. man coverage, while averaging a league-high 10.2 yards per attempt. Blitzing Purdy isn’t an outlandish idea either, as he’s averaging a league-high 10.5 yards per attempt. Containing Christian McCaffrey is one thing, but when it comes to containing the 49ers’ passing attack, the Chiefs should try to force Purdy to hold onto the ball longer than he wants to. A catch in coverage — be it man or zone — could be the X factor in beating San Francisco for the extra two seconds, and then Chris Jones and George Karlaftis will have to get the pressure without the extra help. Spagnuolo is going to throw multiple looks at Kyle Shanahan, but keep an eye on Purdy’s throwing times.

Expect a close game that comes down to the fourth quarter, where the Chiefs defense makes a stand.

Estimated score: Chiefs 24-21
Pick: Chiefs +2

Super Bowl 2024 vs Chiefs Who do the 49ers win and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread compelling? Chiefs Vs. Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers gets hit the hardest, all from the experts who are an incredible 22-5 on picks involving San Francisco and find out.

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