Baseball Hall of Fame vote: Alex Rodriguez’s pause, Chase Utley’s strong first performance and more findings

The results of the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame vote are now known, with Jim Leyland selected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee and the BBWAA. Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer selected, We have discussed inductees extensively in other venues and will discuss again in July when the Hall of Fame induction ceremony takes place. Here, I’m going to explain the rest of the voting results in detail.

Wagner is a year away

That subtitle works in two ways there. Billy Wagner is probably just a year away from making it to Cooperstown, as he received 73.8% of the votes this time (75% was needed to make the Hall of Fame) and history tells us that almost every time a player gets that vote Is. in the next year. Of course, this is also Wagner’s 10th year on the ballot, so he better make it. The 2025 vote will be Wagner’s last, whether he attends it or not.

I Here’s how strong the history is with Wagner.,

A-Rod and Manny look ripe

This was Manny Ramirez’s eighth year on the ballot and he received 32.5% of the vote after receiving 33.2% the previous year. Based on the fortunes of players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens given his two PED suspensions, there is no realistic way for Ramirez to get close to induction. In all likelihood, he will not get even 40% of the votes, leave alone a majority, and certainly not even 75%.

I knew Alex Rodriguez wouldn’t get close to the ballot in his first year and I thought he wouldn’t get a lot of traction in his second year, but it looks like this vote solidifies his position. It has gone from 34.3% to 35.7% to 34.8%. Yes, not only does he have no speed, but he has actually regressed in Year 3. The voting body is always evolving to a young group, but this is really a gradual moment and they only have a maximum of seven years left. Seeing a decline even before reaching 36% sounds like the death knell for its chances.

I could be wrong on A-Rod. Seven years is a long time and who knows what could happen in it that could change the views of those who want to change their minds. He has, let’s say, one of the 10-15 best statistical ledgers in MLB history. It may be possible that it will start gaining momentum next year or the year after that, although that seems unlikely right now.

However, I’m not wrong about Manny. she has done.

Jones, Beltran trying to avoid plateau, with advantage

Andrew Jones increased from 58.1% to 61.6%. This is a benefit, albeit a slight one. The pro-Jones camp would like to see more of a jump here in his seventh year on the ballot. A good number of candidates who reach this category reach the Hall of Fame with at least three years of grace, but there is always a possibility of reaching a voting plateau. Typically a portion of the voting block strongly agrees with a player on a yes or no, leaving a certain percentage open to changing their mind. We’ll see the needle move a little, but at some point the people with a firm “no” stay still and that’s it. As for Jones, will it come before he reaches 75%? Next year is very big for him.

Carlos Beltran saw more than modest gains, going from 46.5% in his first year to 57.1% in his second. I predicted that there would be a segment of voters that wanted to punish Beltran for his involvement in the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal by not voting him out on the first ballot. Of course, there will be those who want to punish him by never voting for him and, even then, there’s always the possibility that he’ll hit a wall before reaching the 75% threshold.

I mentioned above about the growth of the voting body and Beltran has eight years to move toward a more accommodating electorate if he needs to. They say that “time heals all wounds” and while that may not actually be true, it may have been true enough for Beltran. Only time will tell. If a Beltran fan asked me how this would end, I would say to be cautiously optimistic that he will ultimately make it through the BBWAA vote.

As far as Jones is concerned, perhaps a little less optimism, but similar sentiment.

Utley performed well for the first time

Chase Utley was polling at around 40% (via Ryan Thibodeaux’s ballot tracker) and while many candidates lagged slightly between the publicly known and private ballots, Utley officially garnered 28.8% of the vote on his first ballot. Did it.

It’s hard to know what to make of this. We’ve seen recent inductees like Larry Walker, Scott Rolen and now Todd Helton start well below 30% and end up in the Hall. Rolen and Helton also advanced remarkably quickly. We’ve also seen many candidates start out in their 20s and never make it to Cooperstown.

Even though I disagree with this thinking, there are a good number of voters who hold “first-ballot” Hall of Fame status higher than anyone who receives a second ballot or later. This means that it’s possible that voters didn’t vote for Utley simply because it was their first time voting and they didn’t see him as an inner-circle, all-time great.

It took three ballots for Ryne Sandberg to be included, although she debuted at 49.2%. Craig Biggio also received three ballots, although he started at 68.2%.

Something to watch for next year: Contemporary second basemen Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler both debuted on the ballot. He has a worse resume than Utley. Will his presence on the ballot help Utley as people compare second basemen to each other?

it’s possible. It is also possible that there may be a surge in the second year. Next year is big for Utley’s candidacy. I would be optimistic if he sees his vote share increasing to around 40. Anything more than that is gravy.

Wright survived

This year’s group of first-year candidates featured two surefire Hall of Famers in Beltre and Mauer, one of whom will certainly garner a lot of arguments and will remain on the ballot for some time in Utley, and eight who were clearly one-and-done. Have become. Then there was David Wright. I studied his case and found shortcomings, I thought there was a good chance he would be removed from the ballot if he failed to get 5% of the vote. He ultimately got 24 votes, good for 6.2%, so he stayed.

I’m not sure he’ll ever reach 75%, but it’s a start. He has got a chance.

Rollins, Hunter with slight advantage

Torii Hunter just hangs on. In his fourth year on the ballot, he received 7.3% of the vote, up from 6.9% the previous year. Still not a lot of momentum, but the gain is notable after being close to five percent in its second year (5.3% in 2022).

However, Jimmy Rollins may actually have some momentum. This was his third year on the ballot and he has gone from 9.4% to 12.9% to 14.8%. They have not seen any big jumps yet, but upward movement is always beneficial. If looking for inspiration from a fellow former Phillies infielder, Rolen went from 17.2% to 76.3 over four voting cycles. Rollins has seven chances left, assuming he doesn’t fall below 5%.

Five players with less than 20% lost votes

  • In his seventh year on the ballot, Omar Vizquel went from 19.5% to 17.7%, a new low for him. It’s hard to see him getting back above 25%, let alone getting close to making the Hall of Fame.
  • In his sixth year, Andy Pettitte dropped from 17% to 13.5%. His chances of emerging are better than Vizquel’s, but I would say the proverbial writing is on the wall so far.
  • In his fifth year, Bobby Abreu dropped from 15.4% to 14.8%. I thought it likely he would be one of those Internet darlings whose popularity grew year after year; Instead, it seems his wall got hit in his mid-teens.
  • In his fourth year, Mark Buehrle dropped from 10.8% to 8.3%. It seems he’s more likely to fall off the ballot than make a strong run toward office.
  • In its second year, Francisco Rodríguez dropped from 10.8% to 7.8%. I wonder if the increased pressure for Wagner (sixth in all-time saves) will help him bump K-Rod (fourth), but so far it doesn’t look like that. He’s not far from being off the ballot.

Goodbye, Mr. Sheffield

This was the 10th year on the ballot for Gary Sheffield, the greatest slacker of all time, who couldn’t overcome his PED ties and/or poor defense with enough voters. In many areas of life, the voting body collectively showed Sheffield a lot of love. After all, how often does a group of people vote 63.9% in favor of someone, only to have that person answer “no” to that question. However, this is the case in Hall of Fame voting, as a 75% yes vote is required.

Sheffield now players The 10 highest percentile did not reach 75 in their final year,

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